Big Bets on the Big Game: The Math of Super Bowl LV

There is no bigger gambling day in America than the Super Bowl. We bet on everything. The point spread, the over-under, the coin toss (tails never fails, more to come), the length of the national anthem, plus an endless amount of player props. 

Here are the stats on my favorite bets of Super Bowl LV.

Opening Coin toss

Tails never fails. In 54 previous Super Bowls it’s heads 25 times and tails 29 times. Tails clearly hits more. It’s math. Sure, statistically it may make more sense that it will even out and heads is a better option. But is there a cool rhyme like “tails never fails” for heads?  The answer is no.

Referee Bill Vinovich tosses the coin prior to Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium on February 02, 2020 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

National Anthem

The over-under is 1:59 and it’s being performed by Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church. The last time Sullivan performed the Star-Spangled Banner at a big event was at the 2016 NHL Stadium Series in Minnesota. She came in at a smooth 1:39. Another instance, at an NBA game, she belted out a 1:47. Even if she milks an extra five seconds on the biggest stage AND Eric Church adds another five seconds with some duet shenanigans, we’re still hitting the under and that’s what I’m taking.

Jazmine Sullivan sings the national anthem prior to the 2016 Coors Light NHL Stadium Series between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild on February 21, 2016 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/NHLI via Getty Images)

Travis Kelce Receiving Yardage 94.5

This is a HUGE number and I still like the over. When these two teams met earlier this year it was the game where Tyreek Hill had 269 yards receiving (most in the first quarter) and Kelce STILL had 82 yards. The Bucs will make a huge effort to slow down Hill, and I believe Kelce can find an additional15 or so yards in there.

Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs is tackled by Tremaine Edmunds #49 of the Buffalo Bills in the first half during the AFC Championship game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 24, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)


Yes pays 10/1. Look, the odds are slim, and in order to win the FCC has to fine the network—but just imagine how excited you’d be if there was some sort of nip-slip and you’d put money on it. It’s not a good bet… but might be the most fun one and that might be worth a couple bucks at 10/1.

Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake during Super Bowl XXXVIII Halftime Show at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas, United States. (Photo by Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic)


There is some great value here. The actual bet is: What color will the first liquid be poured on the game-winning coach? Traditionally, this has been Gatorade and it is usually Lemon-Lime, Red, or Orange. But in this economy? I don’t know if either team has a deal with Gatorade. I suppose I could google it, but why ruin the fun? Plus, some trainers encourage athletes to drink water or water+electrolytes. The option of Clear/Water is 7/1… great odds. Plus, if it’s Arctic Blast Gatorade (which is delicious btw) you’re covered. I’ve already placed my bet.

Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs receives a Gatorade shower on the sideline against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium on February 2, 2020 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)


Yes pays 5/1. Another longshot—who knows if anyone will be allowed on the field after the game, but come on… be a romantic.  Plus, you need to do damage control with your significant other after cheering for a nip-slip. Celebrating when you see a proposal does just that. 

New York Giants linebacker Greg Jones #53 proposes to his girlfriend after the Giants defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl 46, Indianapolis, Indiana.


This one’s a bit harder. Will the Chiefs win their second consecutive Super Bowl and ruin the Tom Brady narrative?  Will Tom Brady win his 7th ring?  Who will win the Puppy Bowl? (I’m taking Team Fluff over Team Ruff.) These are the tough questions! That said, I like it to be a super close game. It might feel like five years, but the last time these two teams met—November 29th, 2020—the Chiefs won 27-24. I think it will be a similar game. If you can get the Chiefs -3, I’m not mad at that number. But if you can get the Bucs +3.5, I’m not mad at that either. It’s gonna be that close.   don’t think I’ll make my final call until right before kickoff.

Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 celebrates with Kansas City Chiefs’ Austin Reiter #62 their 31-20 win the San Francisco 49ers for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020. (Photo by Nhat V. Meyer/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images)

If you bet any of the above, good luck.  If you bet the exact opposite, I wouldn’t blame you either.  Enjoy the game, stay safe, and order a bunch of take-out from your favorite local restaurant.